These days Sheriff’s Lt. Sean Gerrity spends a lot of his time watching weather Web sites and studying maps that show where water and mud debris might flow if the wrong kind of rain falls in the areas where the Poomacha fire burned.
He has educated himself about how a certain amount of rain per hour might be relatively benign, while a faster, harder rain could be a killer.
Every watershed where the fire burned is a potential problem. Right now the entire south face of Palomar Mountain is a BIG problem.
The mountain is subject to much more precipitation than the rest of the county. Usually twice and often three times as much falls because clouds are pushed up against the slopes, where they drop lots of moisture.
Even when it’s not raining in the flatlands, there is a potential for debris flows on those denuded slopes.
Everybody wants rain. So does the man who is responsible for deciding if and when it’s time to order evacuations.
But Gerrity doesn’t like the kind that turns monstrous and generates a killing debris flow that nothing can stand against.
A flow behaves like an avalanche of wet cement. It flows through creek beds where alder trees live and carries them along with any rocks in its path.
It can pick up giant boulders and roll them down ravines and hill sides and take giant oaks and scour every inch of bark off.
Human beings caught in such flows can’t swim away. They are sucked into the muck and buried. Black mud forces its way into their noses and mouths and they suffocate soundlessly.
Compared to debris flows, floods and mudslides are relatively benign. You can usually predict where water will flow. Debris flows are less predictable.
They even make fires look less terrible: at least with fire you can see it coming and run away.
By the time you know a debris flow is coming, it’s too late.
Anyone who has lived in this area for any length of time is familiar with mudslides that follow fires.
But, says Gerrity, we have a new factor: The south face of Palomar Mountain has not burned so thoroughly in generations.
The fire burned slow and deep into the ground and destroyed plants and roots to a depth of six inches or more. That ash, when mixed with heavy, steady rain, is a recipe for catastrophic debris flow.
It is especially dangerous along steep slopes.
In some areas the probability of 100,000 cubic meters of debris being generated by a heavy rain is 60% or more. A dump truck holds ten cubic meters of dirt. So that’s 10,000 dump trucks of debris barreling down the slopes without warning.
When a storm was predicted last week Lt. Gerrity ordered the “hard” closure of Hwy 76 at Valley Center Road and a “soft” closure at Hwy 76 and Lake Henshaw (see related story, this page).
A hard closure means no one gets by. A soft closure means only local residents are allowed in and out.
About 110 homes are threatened along Hwy 76. They are along the slopes of the mountain as far west as Pauma Reservation, under slopes that burned near Casino Pauma.
Gerrity dispatched deputies to knock on doors of as many residences along the threatened areas as possible. They either directly contacted residents or tacked notices on their doors warning them that their homes were in a high danger area.
He’s less likely to do that the more dangerous the situation gets.
“I’m not going to take the chance of putting my deputies into an area where a debris flow might happen,” he said.
“Every time it rains I would advise those people to visit relatives. It can happen so quickly that there’s not a lot of warning.”
There are dozens of watersheds along this area. Some have names, like Potrero Creek and Pauma Creek. Many have no names.
When the heavy rains materialized as steady rain without sudden showers, and when snow started falling above 3,000 feet, Gerrity relaxed the road closure—Although he kept a “weather” eye out for changes.
During the storm he kept a careful eye on rain gauges planted along the area. When some of them stopped functioning because they had frozen, he began to relax. Snow is not the same threat as rain in such a situation.
If the rain is steady, it’s no big deal. At 1/4 inch every hour you have some risk. At 1/4 inch every 15 minutes the risk is heightened. At 1/2 inch per 15 minutes the risk of debris flow is high.
“I discovered that there’s a difference between showers, which are intermittent but also less predictable, and ‘rain,’ which is steady,” explained Gerrity.
When rain hits areas where fires have burned down several inches, at first the water slides over it. Then it starts to soak into the ash. If enough water falls in a small enough space of time, the ashy mud can cut loose—with catastrophic results.
For now rain is past, and Gerrity is hoping that the predictions of rain for Dec. 19 is correct.
“I’d rather it not rain on Christmas. I’d really like to be there with my kids!” he said.
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There are many effective and inexpensive things you can do to protect property and the watersheds you live in. Most erosion control devices can be installed with normal household tools using materials available at your local lumber yard or hardware store. Additionally, if you have fire-related erosion concerns, you can receive free advice at one of the County’s Erosion Control Homeowner Assistance (ECHA) Centers.
The County of San Diego has created an erosion control resource packet containing further information, locations of ECHA Centers, erosion control contractors and retailers, and other helpful resources. These materials are available on line at www.sdcountyrecovery.com/ at the local assistance centers throughout the county, and at the public counters of the County offices located at 5201 Ruffin Road, San Diego 92123.
The Jaguars are the champions!
With friends and family cheering on, the Valley Center varsity football team captured its third CIF title in four years with a big win over Mission Bay on Saturday night at USD.
The rain soaked the field all day, but held off during the game as the Jags racked up a 26–0 win over the favored Buccaneers.
Tyler Bernard and James Johnson both had big games, and the Valley Center defense posted another shutout to give the Jags the win.
For more on the game, see page B1.
The Valley Center veterinarian who was mauled by two boxer dogs over a year ago partially blames the way Animal Control operates for her attacks.
If county Animal Services was as concerned about protecting humans from animals as it is about protecting animals from humans, attacks like the one that disabled her for months might not happen, she asserts.
A few days after the owner of the dogs who attacked and nearly killed her was sentenced to 90 days in jail, Dr. Nancy Matthews is highly critical of the county agency responsible for controlling dogs.
“Animal Control has a conflict of interest,” she said. “They act as an arm of the Humane Society and at the same time they are supposed to be protecting people from animals.”
And the Sheriff’s Dept. certainly isn’t there to do that job, she adds.
Shortly after the attack that left her bleeding and torn on the ground while her children cowered in fear, “when my husband called the Sheriff’s Dept. after the attack, the deputies said this is an Animal Control issue.”
She believes that Animal Control should operate by a code of regulations that uses fewer “mays and may nots” and has more “shalls.”
“Animal Control had numerous complaints about these dogs and chose not to do anything about it. Oh, right, they came over once and pepper sprayed the dogs through their fence! They were in their own yard and they got pepper sprayed in the eyes.”
She adds, “The woman from Animal Control who pepper sprayed the dogs looked close enough to me to be my sister.”
She thinks that might have something to do with why the dogs attacked her so viciously that morning.
Animal Control doesn’t stop when it encounters an example of cruelty to animals, she claims.
“They come out again and again until the situation is resolved. They don’t let go once they get their teeth in. Look at Michael Vick. He got more than ninety days and no human was hurt.”
But they didn’t do that in the case of the boxers for whom there were many complaints.
“This thing is not over for us. I still suffer with it. I will not rest until I get the changes made,” said Dr. Matthews.
She wants to help change the law to make it easier to control people who have rogue animals.
“Right now the law is written so that Animal Control is accountable to no one. Under those circumstances they can say ‘We did everything we could.’
“They just didn’t do anything. They didn’t do their job. They didn’t protect the public. With power comes responsibility. If you want a powerful agency that interprets the power then they are responsible for getting the job done.”
The Matthews family is also incensed that they have not been able to get the follow up report that Animal Control did on the attack.
Since they are suing Animal Control they have so far been unable to get a copy of the full report.
“We thought that the facts would come out in court, but since the owner of the dogs plea bargained, there was no trial,” says Dr. Matthews.
“Hopefully the end product will be that it doesn’t happen to another family. It’s hell being ripped apart in front of your kids. No one should have that happen,” she says.
San Diego County is updating its “Trails Master Plan.”
This is the County’s game plan for developing inter-connected pathways and trails for non-motorized travel including walking, bicycling and equestrian use.
The Valley Center Planning Group has asked Valley Center Trails Assn. to gather community input and make a presentation at the planning group’s Jan. 14, 2008 meeting.
From this information the Planning Group will make their recommendations to the County.
The goal of the County Trails Master Plan is to create a community where it is safe to go for a walk with your children or dog; meet other members of your community; safely ride your bicycle to a friend’s house or spend a beautiful afternoon riding your horse.
A display in the Valley Center Library has the current map of approved pathways and trails for Valley Center.
This display has materials for you to give the Planning Group your ideas. If you are unable to get to the library, go to the VCTA web site at www.vctrails.org to view the map and email your feedback.
In order to prepare the report for the planning group, the Valley Center Trails Assn. wants your input. Where would you like to walk, bike or ride a horse? What parts of Valley Center should be connected by pathways and trails to other parts of Valley Center or neighboring communities?
Use the materials available in the Library, email the Trails Assn. at contactus@vctrails.org or call Fred Wollman at 760-518-8545 before Jan. 3, 2008 to give the planning group your wish list for future pathways and trails in our community.
The VC-P school district’s “Teachers and Friends” Concert will raise money for families of VCPUSD students and employees who lost homes in the fires. The concert is Dec. 15, 2 p.m. in the Maxine.
You are invited to join in celebrating the season and supporting our neighbors who were impacted by the fires.
The concert will feature instrumentalists Jeff Beck & Christopher Hollyday, vocalists Rich Horne & LaraLee Beck, the Ash Street Ramblers, the Valley Center Community Orchestra, Temecula Valley Master Chorale and more.
The Temecula Valley Master Chorale includes “Teacher” Ken Clark, Bass and friends John Byun, Conductor, Wendy Turk, Accompanist.
The Temecula Valley Master Chorale was created to provide a repertory of choral music which seeks to nurture the public’s appreciation of the life-enhancing qualities of the choral arts.
They will perform “Sing Gloria” by Allan Petker, “Infant Holy, Infant Lowly” by Mark Wilberg, “Ule Lume Lagedale” arranged by Ken Berg, “The Glory Manger” by Robert DeCormier.
An audience sing-along, “Joy to the World” will happen next.
The Beck Family Jazz Band will feature “teacher” Jeff Beck, Trumpet and friends Leonard Beck, Greg Beck and Jordan Beck.
They will perform “A Jazzy Christmas.”
The audience will sing-along “Santa Claus Is Coming To Town.”
Valley Center Community Theater “Teachers” - Bill Kvitli, Linda Saffiote, Kris McCarrick, Margie Morales, Actors Marsi Carr, Director will be joined by some of the cast of It’s a Wonderful Life” :Kimberly, Stephan, Casey & Sydney Horst, Pat Barrett, Laura Dangel, Quinn Engquist, J.J. Rowley, Karen Johnson, Kim Taylor, Richard Novey, Jay, Laine & Taylor West, Joel & Judy Kooyers, Paul & Alyssa Lefevre, Jack Sloman, Lucas Turner, Andrea Bennett, Ruthann Taylor, Peregrine Curtiss, David Ross.
Laralee Beck, Soprano & Tammy Merrick, Dance – “Teachers” will perform “Carrickfergus.”
The Valley Center Community Orchestra will feature “Teacher” Rita Steele, Conductor and friends Emily Adams, Ruth Alden, Abby Alden-Glick, Andrea Alden-Glick, Melinda Biller, Krista Clayton, Alina Gonzalez, Alva Gonzalez, Stephanie Kellogg, Ed Labredo, Marisol Luna, Samantha MacDonald, Lauren Owensby, Matthew Owensby, Cole Richards, Zack Ryan, Ruth Ann Taylor
They will perform “Canon for Strings” by Johann Pachlbel, “Tango” by Carole N. Rabinowitz, and “A Ukrainian Carol”
The Ash Street Ramblers, which includes “teacher” Gary Pay on mandolin and friends Ken Simon (Mossman Guitar), Jay Fromlath (Bass), Gary Meyer (Banjo), Ves Brown (Harmonica), Kim Donaldson (Fiddle), Calvin Patton(Resonator Guitar) will perform “Hard Times” “Down Yonder” “Sitting On Top Of The World” and “Foggy Mountain Breakdown.”
Laralee Beck will perform an original composition “No Words”by “teacher” Mark Wasserman, Composer, who will also accompany her by conducting the orchestra.
Teachers Christopher Hollyday, Alto Saxophone & Robert Lanuza, Piano will get together with friend Carlos Vazquez, percussion for “I’ll Be Home For Christmas” by Walter Kemp, “Christmas Time is Here” by Vince Guaraldi and “Feliz Navidad” by Jose Feliciano.
Rich Horne, Tenor – “Teacher” will perform “The Christmas Song” and “Oh Holy Night.” Production costs are underwritten by donations. All proceeds go directly to support stricken families. Admission is $20 for adults and $10 for students/children 18 & under.
The Valley Center Lion’s Club has purchased $1000 worth of tickets for the event.
Get your tickets from any school office or maxine.vcpusd.net/
Following a weekend of rain and snow, but not the rains of Biblical proportions originally predicted, many residents living in isolated areas such as Palomar Mountain, are questioning the authorities’ decisions on road closures (see related story this page).
A major problem was contradictory orders issued on the closures. Residents trying to figure out what to do were whipsawed by poor information.
Imprisoned on mountain
Some people thought that they wouldn’t be allowed in to their homes. Some were virtually ordered to go their homes and stay there from Thursday-Monday.
Some people who had medical appointments off the mountain were forced to stay home. Others who were off the mountain when the orders went into effect, were stranded.
The man who made the decision to close Hwy 76 on Thursday was Sheriff’s Lt. Sean Gerrity. He was prompted by the extreme danger of potential debris slides centered on the slopes of Palomar Mountain that burned in the Poomacha fire.
He ordered that Hwy 76 be closed Thursday at 10 p.m. at VC Road with no one allowed in or out at that point. That’s called a “hard” closure. He also ordered a “soft” closure for Hwy 76 at Lake Henshaw. That means that residents only are allowed in or out to go on the East Grade.
Motorists were on their honor not to go on Hwy 76 past East Grade where there is considerable danger of debris flows during heavy rains.
Lt. Gerrity emphasizes that he never ordered Hwy 76 closed to residents at Lake Henshaw.
Others made the decision or misinterpreted the order to be that residents shouldn’t be allowed to leave their homes, or return to them.
The California Highway Patrol apparently didn’t get the complete picture. There were reported instances of residents not being allowed to go home at the Lake Henshaw road block. The CHP Web site showed both closures as “hard.”
“Find another route”
One resident told The Roadrunner about explaining to a CHP officer at at Lake Henshaw that he needed to get home and being told “Find another route.” There were, of course, no other routes.
Heartland Dispatch (Heartland Communications Facility Authority), when called by residents, said that both closures were hard, with no one allowed in or out after 10 p.m. Thursday until Monday.
The County’s 511 Web site, which is supposed to provide information on road closures, gave confusing information, implying that road work was going on at Hwy 76 & VC Road, but not that the road was closed.
CalTrans issued a release saying that Hwy 76 would be closed at VC Road and Henshaw, but that “Residents only will be permitted to travel with escort from Lake Henshaw Resort as far as Harolds Road.”
Outside motorists were not allowed to go up the mountain at all during the weekend. This, by the way, didn’t bother most mountain residents at all.
Eventually the catastrophic storm that had been predicted did not occur. Steady rains arrived, but not that kind that generate debris flows.
Lt. Gerrity was able to remove the road closure order for Hwy 76 on Friday.
It was reestablished again on Saturday and removed again on Sunday.
Most residents understood the need for a hard closure at Hwy 76 & VC Road, although it meant a 90 minute detour through Ramona or through Temecula to Hwy 79.
Harder to explain was the closure of Hwy 76 at Lake Henshaw since the week before residents were allowed in and out by that exit even when the highway was closed at Valley Center.
A number of mountain residents told The Roadrunner that this was an overreaction by the authorities before much rain has even fallen.
VC Optimists selected several ornaments off Shirley Good's Giving Tree at The Roadrunner. They shopped for kids who were designated on those ornaments. At their Wednesday night meeting they invited their wives to dinner a wrapping party. Thursday they delivered the gifts to the Roadrunner office for distribution in time for Christmas.
The Valley Roadrunner
P.O.B. 1529, Valley Center, CA 92082
Tel. 760.749.1112 Fax 760.749.1688
Website: www.valleycenter.com
Email: editor@valleycenter.com
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