Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Fantasy Football Sleepers & Snoozers
The end of summer is quickly approaching, and with the changing colors of the leaves (trust me, it happens in other parts of the country) comes the annual insanity known as Fantasy Football.
Let's get the most obvious point out first — if you have the first pick and you don't take LaDainian Tomlinson, you should never, ever consider playing fantasy sports again. Ever.
But beyond that, the fantasy draft is a tangled web of possibility, expectation, analysis and enough head games to plunge even the most die-hard fanatic into an abyss of doubt and confusion.
So how do we get through those late-round selections in one piece? Easy — just sit back, take a few deep breaths, wipe the chicken wing grease off your fingers and pick up this handy Guide To Fantasy Sleepers & Snoozers.
Here, we'll look at five players who you should target and five players you should avoid. I base my opinions on more than a decade of NFL fanship, a consistent streak of top-three finishes in fantasy football for the past four years and the fact that winning a fantasy league is just as much about luck as it is about skill, so if I'm wrong, what can I do about it?
Here we go — five "sleepers" you should try to land in the early rounds, followed by five "snoozers" you should encourage your league's other owners to grab while you snicker behind their backs.
— — —
Sleepers:
1. Ronnie Brown: RB, Miami Dolphins.
Brown has the perfect combination of size and skill, leading to a few pundits to label him a "poor man's LaDainian Tomlinson." With former Chargers Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron at the helm in Miami, Brown's hard-nosed running style should mesh nicely with his versatility in the passing game to create a fantasy outbreak. If he's on the board at number five, he's a tempting choice for you to build your team around.
2. Travis Henry: RB, Denver Broncos
He's had 1,000-plus yard rushing seasons before, and we all know how the Broncos can make any running back an all-pro. But it's Henry's toughness around the goal line that will separate him from the decent backs available late in the first round. With second-year quarterback Jay Cutler still working out the bugs, look for Mike Shanahan to give Henry plenty of opportunity to rack up yards and touchdowns.
3. Deuce McAllister: RB, New Orleans Saints
Go out on the street and ask the first ten people you see to name the Saints' running back. I'd say there's about a .0000006 percent chance that you get an answer other than "Reggie Bush." But what all the hype doesn't tell you is that McAllister is still in his prime (he will turn 28 late this season), he's finally gone through an entire season without getting injured (he's fresh!) and he's a horse around the goal line. Reggie may have those highlight-reel flips into the endzone to show off, but odds are that McAllister will at least double Bush's touchdown totals by the end of the season. Admire Bush's athleticism, but take advantage of McAllister's propensity to score.
4. Brandon Jacobs: RB, New York Giants
Some people aren't so big on Jacobs, and it's easy to see why — he's huge (6'4", 264), he's got speed (he ran a 4.5 in the 40-yard dash out of college) and he scores loads of touchdowns. Yeah, stay away from that guy. Seriously, he scored nine touchdowns last year as Tiki Barber's backup, so now (with only a decaying Reuben Droughns as competition) people suddenly don't think he's ready to go? You know what, let them think that while we grab him as a solid number two back and ride him to the championship.
5. Jerious Norwood: RB, Atlanta Falcons
I'm going to let you in on a little secret — the Atlanta Falcons offense will be better without Michael Vick. They were the league's leading rushing team last season with Vick, so with Joey Harrington under center while Vick's legal troubles keep him away, do you think they're going to pass more? The downside is that Warrick Dunn is still hanging around, but Norwood averaged more than six yards per carry in his rookie season, and Dunn isn't young enough to keep that up all season. Norwood as a number two fantasy back isn't a bad deal at all.
Snoozers:
1. Drew Brees: QB, New Orleans Saints
I know he's the toast of The Big Easy, but after such an unbelieveable season last year, there's really nowhere to go but down for Brees. He lost a veteran wideout in Joe Horn, his defense is finding ways to get hurt in the offseason (yes, you did see a headline about a Saints linebacker getting hurt while at a water park this summer), and with a tougher schedule, teams know they're coming. Even the emotions of resurrecting the team from the ravages of Hurricane Katrina are starting to wear off (if they're not gone completely). Don't get me wrong, he'll still be decent, but if you sit back and watch him get snatched up in the late first or early second round, you'll be more than happy you settled for another of the many decent quarterbacks in the fifth or sixth round.
2. Steve Smith: WR, Carolina Panthers
Despite his Hobbit-ean stature, Smith has been racking up impressive totals over the past five seasons. But this year, with a shaky quarterback (who's a little nervous now that he's got competition) and a deteriorating defense, Smith's opportunities aren't going to come easily. Like Brees, he should put up decent numbers — just not second-round worthy numbers.
3. Ahman Green: RB, Houston Texans
Wow, where to begin? His age, his team's inability to block anybody, his age again, or his age? I think you get the point — he's no spring chicken. But otherwise, he's going to have to fight for every inch this season on legs that have gone through yet another off-season surgery. Plus, he has to deal with other backs who are trying to prove themselves (Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado). Oh, and he's got a first-year starter at quarterback, a defense full of guys you couldn't pick out of a lineup and a team that has expectations like "it would be great to beat at least one of our division opponents again this season!" Picking Green this year should automatically come with a bottle of Tums.
4. Tony Gonzalez: TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Always one of the top tight ends, Gonzo has long been one of the most gifted athletes in the NFL. But that will only get you so far, and with a first-year starter at quarterback behind a sketchy offensive line, combined with a defense that probably remembers listening to FDR give his "fireside chats" on the radio, gives you a scenario that doesn't look so good anymore. Factor in his age and the fact that there are absolutely no other receiving weapons on the team, and you've got a career-low season waiting to happen.
5. Donovan McNabb: QB, Philadelphia Eagles
He's really fun to watch when he's healthy and he's got talent around him. So basically, this season will not be fun to watch. He hasn't played a full season in more than two years, and the Philly ownership seems to be going out of its way to deny him a surrounding cast of talented receivers. Only the pass-happy offense of Andy Reid keeps McNabb's totals high, but you have to wonder if all that throwing has been wearing him down. If he's still on the board in round seven or eight, he might be worth a shot. But if somebody else grabs him in the fourth round, enjoy a good chuckle when McNabb ends up on the bench by week three.
— — —
As a special treat, I’ve invited back David Baker to add his thoughts on some potential sleepers and busts going into the fantasy football season.
You may remember Mr. Baker from our now-infamous “MLB vs. NASCAR” debate that spanned three weeks and started a number of good conversations with you, the sports fans of the community.
Here are his thoughts on who will exceed expectations and who will disappoint.
Sleepers
1. Jon Kitna: QB, Detroit Lions
With some of the best receivers in the game, and an unjust reputation for being mediocre, look for Kitna to surprise some people with pretty decent numbers.
2. Matt Leinart: QB, Arizona Cardinals
Leinart has great young talent in the WR positions, and should develop a more refined passing game. He could have a breakout year.
3. Cedric Benson: RB, Chicago Bears
With no serious threats to take many of his touches away, Benson looks to capitalize on an awful passing game, but a team that still has plenty of time on offense due to a turnover hungry defense.
4. Jerious Norwood: RB, Atlanta Falcons
Though he still may be the second back on the depth chart, Norwood is poised to take most goal line carries. He’s a strong runner that is ready to take over for an aging Dunn.
5. Drew Bennett: WR, St. Louis Rams
Infused into a high-powered offense, Bennett will quickly prove that he should be the number two receiver behind Holt, and reap the benefits of an amazing passing attack.
6. Zach Miller: TE, Oakland Raiders
Look for Oakland to dump a lot of passes, due to a quarterback who is past his good years, and an offensive line that will never see good years.
Busts
1. Jeff Garcia: QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Garcia is all out of magic, and ready to end his career somewhere sunny.
2. Daunte Culpepper: QB, Oakland Raiders
Though I like the addition of Zach Miller, Culpepper is on a team that refuses to add talented weapons in their prime.
3. Julius Jones: RB, Dallas Cowboys
His touches will become fewer and further between, as Marion Barber continues to grow into a well-rounded back. Even if he rushes for a decent amount of downs, Barber will continue to get all goal line touches, hurting Jones’s numbers.
4. Fred Taylor: RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Though Taylor put up over 1100 yards rushing last year, those numbers will diminish with the continued development of Jones-Drew, and Taylor’s advancing years.
5. Mike Furrey: WR, Detroit Lions
He had one great year… and that’s what we’ll say 10 years from now. With Calvin Johnson, coupled with fate in general, Mike Furrey will drop out of our collective consciousness quickly.
6. Derek Mason: WR, Baltimore Ravens
A solid receiver for many years in Tennessee, Mason is past his prime, and he and McNair will combine for a whopping 700 yards.
— — —
Well there you have it — another opinion in the swirling seas of fantasy football advice for you to navigate yourself through on your quest for the championship.
If nothing else, you can just use it as another head game to play with your fellow owners before the draft starts... ("Hey, this guy said to draft Jerious Norwood... Is he even in the league? Doesn't that name sound made up? I just don't know... )
And since there's time before most fantasy drafts, I'd love to hear your thoughts on some potential sleepers and snoozers for this season.
Drop me an e-mail at sports@valleycenter.com or a comment on the blog page by going to www.valleycenter.com and clicking on the "RR Blogs" link.
Here’s another potential sleeper — Dan Fouts. I don't know why, but something tells me he's going to have an outstanding year.
You heard it here first.
Let's get the most obvious point out first — if you have the first pick and you don't take LaDainian Tomlinson, you should never, ever consider playing fantasy sports again. Ever.
But beyond that, the fantasy draft is a tangled web of possibility, expectation, analysis and enough head games to plunge even the most die-hard fanatic into an abyss of doubt and confusion.
So how do we get through those late-round selections in one piece? Easy — just sit back, take a few deep breaths, wipe the chicken wing grease off your fingers and pick up this handy Guide To Fantasy Sleepers & Snoozers.
Here, we'll look at five players who you should target and five players you should avoid. I base my opinions on more than a decade of NFL fanship, a consistent streak of top-three finishes in fantasy football for the past four years and the fact that winning a fantasy league is just as much about luck as it is about skill, so if I'm wrong, what can I do about it?
Here we go — five "sleepers" you should try to land in the early rounds, followed by five "snoozers" you should encourage your league's other owners to grab while you snicker behind their backs.
— — —
Sleepers:
1. Ronnie Brown: RB, Miami Dolphins.
Brown has the perfect combination of size and skill, leading to a few pundits to label him a "poor man's LaDainian Tomlinson." With former Chargers Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron at the helm in Miami, Brown's hard-nosed running style should mesh nicely with his versatility in the passing game to create a fantasy outbreak. If he's on the board at number five, he's a tempting choice for you to build your team around.
2. Travis Henry: RB, Denver Broncos
He's had 1,000-plus yard rushing seasons before, and we all know how the Broncos can make any running back an all-pro. But it's Henry's toughness around the goal line that will separate him from the decent backs available late in the first round. With second-year quarterback Jay Cutler still working out the bugs, look for Mike Shanahan to give Henry plenty of opportunity to rack up yards and touchdowns.
3. Deuce McAllister: RB, New Orleans Saints
Go out on the street and ask the first ten people you see to name the Saints' running back. I'd say there's about a .0000006 percent chance that you get an answer other than "Reggie Bush." But what all the hype doesn't tell you is that McAllister is still in his prime (he will turn 28 late this season), he's finally gone through an entire season without getting injured (he's fresh!) and he's a horse around the goal line. Reggie may have those highlight-reel flips into the endzone to show off, but odds are that McAllister will at least double Bush's touchdown totals by the end of the season. Admire Bush's athleticism, but take advantage of McAllister's propensity to score.
4. Brandon Jacobs: RB, New York Giants
Some people aren't so big on Jacobs, and it's easy to see why — he's huge (6'4", 264), he's got speed (he ran a 4.5 in the 40-yard dash out of college) and he scores loads of touchdowns. Yeah, stay away from that guy. Seriously, he scored nine touchdowns last year as Tiki Barber's backup, so now (with only a decaying Reuben Droughns as competition) people suddenly don't think he's ready to go? You know what, let them think that while we grab him as a solid number two back and ride him to the championship.
5. Jerious Norwood: RB, Atlanta Falcons
I'm going to let you in on a little secret — the Atlanta Falcons offense will be better without Michael Vick. They were the league's leading rushing team last season with Vick, so with Joey Harrington under center while Vick's legal troubles keep him away, do you think they're going to pass more? The downside is that Warrick Dunn is still hanging around, but Norwood averaged more than six yards per carry in his rookie season, and Dunn isn't young enough to keep that up all season. Norwood as a number two fantasy back isn't a bad deal at all.
Snoozers:
1. Drew Brees: QB, New Orleans Saints
I know he's the toast of The Big Easy, but after such an unbelieveable season last year, there's really nowhere to go but down for Brees. He lost a veteran wideout in Joe Horn, his defense is finding ways to get hurt in the offseason (yes, you did see a headline about a Saints linebacker getting hurt while at a water park this summer), and with a tougher schedule, teams know they're coming. Even the emotions of resurrecting the team from the ravages of Hurricane Katrina are starting to wear off (if they're not gone completely). Don't get me wrong, he'll still be decent, but if you sit back and watch him get snatched up in the late first or early second round, you'll be more than happy you settled for another of the many decent quarterbacks in the fifth or sixth round.
2. Steve Smith: WR, Carolina Panthers
Despite his Hobbit-ean stature, Smith has been racking up impressive totals over the past five seasons. But this year, with a shaky quarterback (who's a little nervous now that he's got competition) and a deteriorating defense, Smith's opportunities aren't going to come easily. Like Brees, he should put up decent numbers — just not second-round worthy numbers.
3. Ahman Green: RB, Houston Texans
Wow, where to begin? His age, his team's inability to block anybody, his age again, or his age? I think you get the point — he's no spring chicken. But otherwise, he's going to have to fight for every inch this season on legs that have gone through yet another off-season surgery. Plus, he has to deal with other backs who are trying to prove themselves (Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado). Oh, and he's got a first-year starter at quarterback, a defense full of guys you couldn't pick out of a lineup and a team that has expectations like "it would be great to beat at least one of our division opponents again this season!" Picking Green this year should automatically come with a bottle of Tums.
4. Tony Gonzalez: TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Always one of the top tight ends, Gonzo has long been one of the most gifted athletes in the NFL. But that will only get you so far, and with a first-year starter at quarterback behind a sketchy offensive line, combined with a defense that probably remembers listening to FDR give his "fireside chats" on the radio, gives you a scenario that doesn't look so good anymore. Factor in his age and the fact that there are absolutely no other receiving weapons on the team, and you've got a career-low season waiting to happen.
5. Donovan McNabb: QB, Philadelphia Eagles
He's really fun to watch when he's healthy and he's got talent around him. So basically, this season will not be fun to watch. He hasn't played a full season in more than two years, and the Philly ownership seems to be going out of its way to deny him a surrounding cast of talented receivers. Only the pass-happy offense of Andy Reid keeps McNabb's totals high, but you have to wonder if all that throwing has been wearing him down. If he's still on the board in round seven or eight, he might be worth a shot. But if somebody else grabs him in the fourth round, enjoy a good chuckle when McNabb ends up on the bench by week three.
— — —
As a special treat, I’ve invited back David Baker to add his thoughts on some potential sleepers and busts going into the fantasy football season.
You may remember Mr. Baker from our now-infamous “MLB vs. NASCAR” debate that spanned three weeks and started a number of good conversations with you, the sports fans of the community.
Here are his thoughts on who will exceed expectations and who will disappoint.
Sleepers
1. Jon Kitna: QB, Detroit Lions
With some of the best receivers in the game, and an unjust reputation for being mediocre, look for Kitna to surprise some people with pretty decent numbers.
2. Matt Leinart: QB, Arizona Cardinals
Leinart has great young talent in the WR positions, and should develop a more refined passing game. He could have a breakout year.
3. Cedric Benson: RB, Chicago Bears
With no serious threats to take many of his touches away, Benson looks to capitalize on an awful passing game, but a team that still has plenty of time on offense due to a turnover hungry defense.
4. Jerious Norwood: RB, Atlanta Falcons
Though he still may be the second back on the depth chart, Norwood is poised to take most goal line carries. He’s a strong runner that is ready to take over for an aging Dunn.
5. Drew Bennett: WR, St. Louis Rams
Infused into a high-powered offense, Bennett will quickly prove that he should be the number two receiver behind Holt, and reap the benefits of an amazing passing attack.
6. Zach Miller: TE, Oakland Raiders
Look for Oakland to dump a lot of passes, due to a quarterback who is past his good years, and an offensive line that will never see good years.
Busts
1. Jeff Garcia: QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Garcia is all out of magic, and ready to end his career somewhere sunny.
2. Daunte Culpepper: QB, Oakland Raiders
Though I like the addition of Zach Miller, Culpepper is on a team that refuses to add talented weapons in their prime.
3. Julius Jones: RB, Dallas Cowboys
His touches will become fewer and further between, as Marion Barber continues to grow into a well-rounded back. Even if he rushes for a decent amount of downs, Barber will continue to get all goal line touches, hurting Jones’s numbers.
4. Fred Taylor: RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Though Taylor put up over 1100 yards rushing last year, those numbers will diminish with the continued development of Jones-Drew, and Taylor’s advancing years.
5. Mike Furrey: WR, Detroit Lions
He had one great year… and that’s what we’ll say 10 years from now. With Calvin Johnson, coupled with fate in general, Mike Furrey will drop out of our collective consciousness quickly.
6. Derek Mason: WR, Baltimore Ravens
A solid receiver for many years in Tennessee, Mason is past his prime, and he and McNair will combine for a whopping 700 yards.
— — —
Well there you have it — another opinion in the swirling seas of fantasy football advice for you to navigate yourself through on your quest for the championship.
If nothing else, you can just use it as another head game to play with your fellow owners before the draft starts... ("Hey, this guy said to draft Jerious Norwood... Is he even in the league? Doesn't that name sound made up? I just don't know... )
And since there's time before most fantasy drafts, I'd love to hear your thoughts on some potential sleepers and snoozers for this season.
Drop me an e-mail at sports@valleycenter.com or a comment on the blog page by going to www.valleycenter.com and clicking on the "RR Blogs" link.
Here’s another potential sleeper — Dan Fouts. I don't know why, but something tells me he's going to have an outstanding year.
You heard it here first.
Subscribe to Posts [Atom]