San Luis Rey becomes a mighty flood



Although it might look like a four-wheel drive or other SUV might be able to cross the river in such a case, the annals of rapid water rescue are filled with stories of people with poor judgment who tried to cross such a stretch and became trapped. The fortunate ones were rescued.

Whenever the rainclouds open as they have done in recent weeks, the San Luis Rey River, which normally merely meanders through Pauma Valley on its way to the Pacific ocean, becomes a mighty flood.

That’s what it has been doing this year. This week, forecasters say we could see as much as another 3 inches inland and as much as 5 inches on Palomar Mountain. Flooding and landslides are always a possibility with such large amounts of water coming down.

The rains are very reminiscent of what in 1991 growers of avocados and citrus ecstatically called “the Miracle March” of storms, which rescued many growers from a devastating drought and cutbacks by the Metropolitan Water District.

One who intimately recalls that March, 32 years ago is Gary Arant, general manager of the Valley Center Municipal Water District. Arant who was GM at VCMWD at the time, told The Roadrunner: “Does this March remind of the Miracle March on 1991? Yes it does. After 7 years of relatively dry weather, the impact of the drought finally made its way to Southern California. In late December/early January, MWD, the then sole water supply for the San Diego County Water Authority and it member agencies announced that because of sharply reduce deliveries from the State Water Project it was going to impose a 50% reduction to M&I customers and 90% reduction to commercial agricultural customers, effective April of 1991.”

Arant, drawing from his memory, continued, “VCMWD adopted the ordinance in February of ‘91 to implement the cuts and had notified it and was preparing to implement the reductions. A 90% cut to agriculture would mean essentially the end of permanent tree crops, (citrus, avocados) in San Diego County and have a severe financial impact on VCMWD and other ag water agencies. With the drought response implementing ordinances in place at VCMWD, it began to rain and snow in March, the Miracle March. Precipitation was so plentiful, that MWD began backing down the percentage of reductions, where we wound up at 31% reduction for all customers. By the end of ‘91 and the early ‘92, the drought was essentially over. While growers had to stump portions of their groves to live within their allocation, they could remain in business and these stumped tree would be back into full production within 3-4 years.  The impacts of the drought, such as the loss of the MWD agricultural discount, would linger through 1994, the devastation of a 50% and 90% reduction was avoided.”

The San Diego Union Tribune archives state: “March 1991 gave birth to the ‘Miracle March’ phrase. California was mired in its fifth year of drought. December, January and February were drier than normal around the state. California needed massive deluges in March to pull out of drought, and it got them. Some key watersheds in Northern California recorded 17 to 18 inches of rain that month.”

Former Palomar Mountain residents Karl and Celia Dunscombe, who lived on the mountain for 22 years, where he worked at the observatory and she was a smiling face at the General Store, recall ‘Miracle March’ very well. They were quoted this week in Palomar Mountain News, speaking to Bonnie Phelps, who publishes the “News.”

The Dunscombes recalled, “Thirty-two years ago was long before cell phones and internet. One day when the snow was so deep, our dog easily walked over his five foot fence and got lost, I made phone calls to a couple of people in our ‘neck of the mountain.’ I eventually found him by walking around and asking people.  Some kind folks had taken him in their house, but their phone was out so they couldn’t call our phone number on the dog tag.”

They continued, “At times, the snow was coming down so fast that the county road crews couldn’t keep up. They loaded it up in big dump trucks and hauled the snow and dumped on some lookouts along the grades and also to the foot of the mountain by Oak Knoll campground. They couldn’t push it off the road on Crestline anymore because it was piled more than head high on both sides and in some places and only one narrow lane down the middle. No room to pass. Fortunately there weren’t that many full-time people living there then so parking wasn’t as much as an issue as I understand it is now.”

Phelps quoted another Mountain resident, this one a current resident: Scott Morningstar, who recalled that storm and “how trees fell on cabins and cars and blocked roads for weeks.”

Another Mountain resident, Ray Carpenter recalls that so much snow fell that a tree crushed their big trailer. 

Phelps concluded, “The difference in these past 30 years is we have more personal snow plows are rolling. Neighbors are helping neighbors carve out parking spaces to get the stranded cars off the roads so propane trucks, trash trucks and crews can get in for tree work and repairs to cabins, decks and driveways.”

The San Luis Rey at full flood over the Arizona crossing on Cole Grade Road near Pauma School. The road was closed to through traffic due to the flooding for several days last week. It will probably be closed again due to rains that have begun again this week.

The Roadrunner gave the last word on “Miracle March” and how it relates to today’s situation to Arant, who noted, “With this March, we see a rapid reversal of the dry weather patterns we experienced in 2019-2020, 2020-2021, and 2021-2022. Current precipitation and snow pack are on a track to possibly exceed the wettest year on record, 2016-2017. Statewide, reservoir are filling, and in fact, Lake Oroville, the State Water Projects largest reservoir is letting water out to make room for the spring run-off that will be coming shortly.  Yes, the drought is over, for now.”

But don’t get too happy about that because, as Arant observes, “I say for now, because after three wet years, 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019, the state reservoir system was full. There was no place to put any more water. We were fat.   However, it only took three dry years or as some describe it as the ‘1,200 Year Drought’ to bring the state’s water supply and huge Central Valley Agriculture to its knees. We were warned, that if we had 4th consecutive dry in the state, combined with major water supply issues on the Colorado River, MWD might have to go to ‘Human Health and Safety Water Allocations,’ in its entire service area. There is no water for outside use, commercial use or commercial ag use in a Human Health and Safety Allocation.  It is true that the because of the SDCWA’s efforts at supply diversification (Local Storage, IID Water, Canal Lining Water, Desal) the San Diego Region would have generally been in much better shape  than the rest of Southern California. However, water for commercial agriculture is based on the supply from MWD, and in a HH&S allocation there would have been no water for commercial agriculture in Valley Center.”

Arant concluded, “So what’s the message?  The climate change models predict, shorter, more intense wet periods, longer, warmer dry periods and less snow pack.  Our statewide water system is not built to accommodate this new hydrology.  To deal with the new reality, we need additional surface storage, we need additional groundwater storage development, we need more efficient ways to move surface water when it is plentiful, like now, to the new ground water storage facilities, and we need more water supply development such desal, wastewater reclamation, and potable reuse. If the state doesn’t take the lead in making these things happen, California will continue to swing wildly between water boom and bust, and its people, economy and environment will continue to suffer the consequences.”

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